00:01
So in this question we have states, and these are boom, normal or recession.
00:08
They have probabilities, 0 .21, 0 .46, and we don't know.
00:16
We have a will have a return of 0 .20, 0 .17, or 0 .11.
00:22
And b would have a return of 0 .22, 0 .14, and 0 .06.
00:30
So first of all, what's the probability of a recession? well, that's 1 minus the probability of a boom minus the probability of neutral, because they must all add up to 1.
00:40
So 1 minus 0 .2, 1 minus 0 .46 gives me 0 .33.
00:47
So we can put that in the table now.
00:52
Part b, we want stocks and their expected returns.
00:59
So stock, the expected value of that stock.
01:04
So we've got a and b.
01:08
Now the expected value of a is 0 .2 times 0 .21 plus 0 .17 times 0 .46 plus 0 .11 times 0 .33...